Long foul balls -- to catch or let it drop?

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Feb 20, 2020
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I was watching my beloved Gators last night playing at UCF. Tie game, top of the sixth, bases loaded, one out. Long fly ball hit to foul territory in left. The OF made the catch, allowing the third-base runner to score and go ahead.

Was that the right play? DD and I had the discussion after. Making the catch got an out, which was needed, but it also gave up a for-sure run. Would you have told your girls to let it fall with a runner in scoring position, or take the out when you can?

FTR: UCF won the game in the bottom of the 7th with a walk-off, two run homer, but I think he question is still valid so I thought I'd toss it out there.
 

Strike2

Allergic to BS
Nov 14, 2014
2,044
113
If a runner can score from 3B late in a tie game, letting a deep foul ball fall is usually the right call. You might need to let a shorter foul ball drop if it's going to be some kind of circus catch. At least make them hit it fair to beat you.
 
Dec 15, 2018
809
93
CT
Tough situation. You have to score a run anyway eventually to win, so I say you grab outs. She buries a double on the next pitch you are way more screwed. Maybe depends on the batter, did she tatoo the foul ball, has she struck out 3 times before this at bat...definitely tough.
 
May 1, 2018
659
63
didn't see the play, but if she can camp under and set up for a good throw....go for it. If not let it drop
 
Feb 20, 2020
377
63
That same situation cost Florida the WCWS game agains UCLA a few years ago (the ump blew the call at the plate, but if the ball drops it's not a question).
 
Jul 29, 2013
6,782
113
North Carolina
In late inning tight games, in the right situation I’ve ran out of the dugout screaming “LET IT DROP“ more than a bunch of times!

If I’m going to get beat, I’d rather it be from a legitimate hit! Lots of gambling in softball, by not catching that long foul ball, the next pitch might be a routine ground ball out?
 
Dec 15, 2018
809
93
CT
Ok, looks like so far I'm the only one to suggest potentially taking the out. So, let me just talk myself into or out of that...

I think the thing that leads me to take the out here is bases loaded. I know baseball isn't softball, and I know that there probably aren't reliable run expectancy charts out there for softball, but...if we take the MLB run expectancy for bases loaded 1 out, it's 1.52. Meaning not only is that runner on third likely going to score, but so will more. And if we take 1st and 2nd with 2 outs, it's .343 (so, combined with the run you gave up as a certainty for the out, the total is 1.343 vs 1.52).

Maybe that's not super compelling, but adds some math, which is always interesting (and which I'm willing to concede I may be botching, and there could after all be different math for college softball).

Anyway, I'd maintain that who is batting is a huge factor here - number 4 masher or number 9 puncher for instance. Also, how much do you believe in your offence? You have to score a run anyway...now you have to score 2. Not dying on any hills here, just thinking through the gamble...
 

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