Dante Bichette

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May 12, 2016
4,338
113
Batting averages don't win games. Crossing home plate does.
Easiest way to cross home plate is to hit the ball over the fence.
I watched the 2018 LSU team lead the SEC in batting average but at the same time have one of the lowest run totals.... 2 all American pitchers, but they couldn't win against the better NCAA teams because they didn't have the ability to come back from a 2 run deficit late in a game.
At the higher levels, a pitcher/team might make 1 or 2 mistakes per inning. When those mistakes result in single bases, she gets out of it with 2 left on.
Imagine how disheartening it is for a pitcher to give up 2 runs late in a 1-0 ball game because she let one get on base and the next hits a dinger. 1-2 , no chicken dinner.
LSU couldn't do it then.
They changed their philosophy.
That's true.. but there are many ways to cross home plate as per what I was saying above. You can't make blanket statements based on one observation or one of your experiences. And I don't know anything about LSU so I take your word for it. But I do know what's happening with the Jays this year and your comments are not applicable.

Jays 2019
Jays 2020
9th in HR's8th in HR's
Last in BA 12th in BA
7th in Most SO's20th in most SOs
20th in Walks11th in walks
27th in OBP15th in OBP
22nd in SAC3rd in SAC
29th in SACF11th in SACF
23rd RPG 11th RPG

Just wanted to post some stats that back up what I am saying. Getting it done with very minimal HR production increase. Imagine those HR's with the bases full.. you need players on bases though :). Look at the improvement in SACs and SACF, the decrease in SO's, increase in walks, major increase in BA.. . HR's are much more effective when you have runners on base ;)
 
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Apr 20, 2018
4,581
113
SoCal
Do you think Tony Gwynn was thinking do damage every time? Is he one of your exceptions?

I have played a lot of ball. When I went up to do damage, I didn't do well, when I went up to hit a base hit, I often hit a HR.

Once again I love Josh Donaldson, but do damage Josh or Tony Gwynn and I would rather be Tony.

Hey this guy hits .230 but got 40 HRs. Or hey this guy hit 20 HRs but hits .305. Who would you choose? Or who would you choose if it was the playoffs?
Tony Gwynn hit 135 HRs over 20 years. Batted .338 The mathematician say the guy that hits 40 bombs has more value.
 
May 12, 2016
4,338
113
Without baserunners you have solo shots. They are both valuable. As a manager, fan or coach I’d rather have A reliable hitter at the plate with one out, a man on third and a tie game.
At the same time behind by 3 in a game and bases loaded I want my slugger at the plate. Both hitters are valuable.

But thinking HR every swing and in every situation is not productive. Still think damage but there are many ways to do damage at the plate that doesn’t involve hitting the ball over the fence.
 
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Sep 19, 2018
928
93
@Rolling Hard is right, in today's MLB, the 40 homer guys are more valuable than the average guys. Assuming the 40 homer guys walks of course :). In today's MLB game it is really hard to string 3 and 4 hits together.

However, I believe the mechanics of how runs are scored in travel or even college level softball are very different than MLB. 60 foot bases and the fact that the defenders are just not nearly as good as those in the MLB make the games different.

I am not sure we should be teaching young girls (or boys for the matter) the all or nothing approach that is prevalent in MLB.
 
Feb 16, 2015
933
43
South East
When did lsu, assuming softball, change their approach. I noticed Dobson started following the name that can't be named, but I don't think they made the final 8 since the change.

Dobson started working with a guy named Jeremy Johnson a couple years ago........ Dobson started to implement his new findings before the 2018 season or whatever season it was before this past canceled season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Apr 20, 2018
4,581
113
SoCal
I never understood or agreed with the math and grew up with the "two out rally, hit it up the ally!" chant. I love first to third running. Stealing bases is now almost non existent. Where is Ricky Henderson when you need him. Alec Mills (walk on college player) recent mlb no no was a breath of fresh air. How can a guy throw a no no and his FB is 91 mph tops? Because he can pitch!!!!!
 
May 12, 2016
4,338
113
What the mathematicians don't take in account when comparing a guy that can hit 40 HRS who strikes out a ton and all around hitter who strikes out very little are the intangibles. For example..Who here has pitched? I have and if you have you know exactly what I am talking about. I'd rather give up a 500 ft HR to the HR hitter then end up losing a 11 pitch battle to a seeing eye single up the middle that scores a run from 2nd. Knowing that the next time I face the HR hitter the stats tell he is likely to strike out, while facing the all around hitter he is going to battle me every AB and drive my pitch count up, wear me down, frustrate my fielders etc.
 
Sep 19, 2018
928
93
disclaimer: I do not believe that the conclusions based off of MLB data are necessarily applicable to softball.

I don't think you are giving the mathematicians enough credit. Those guys (and gals) live this. They spend all day every day doing detailed regression analysis of thousands to millions of outcomes in every scenario that can possibly be tracked.

I'd bet that they have a very good understanding of pitch count, long AB's and the resulting outcomes after a 2 out homer vs the 2 out seeing eye 72mph grounder.

Same thing with bunting late in the game. They very well know how often people score from 2nd with 1 out vs scoring from 1st with no outs. And I am pretty sure they take into account how often 1 run scores vs multiple runs and how often 1 run is enough to win vs needing more than 1.

I am totally on board with hating the Homer / K / W mentality of the current game. I also believe as someone mentioned above, that playoff baseball is different than the regular season. As a Yankee fan, I've seen more than enough of the Playoff Post Strike out conga line back to the dugout. But you have to get to the play-off first to have that be a problem.
 

BigSkyHi

All I know is I don't know
Jan 13, 2020
1,385
113
Tony Gwynn hit 135 HRs over 20 years. Batted .338 The mathematician say the guy that hits 40 bombs has more value.
Easy to do math when you only have to cover 10 hitters with 40 or more in 2019?

2019 MLB HR Leaders
RankPlayerHR
1Pete Alonso53
2Eugenio Suarez49
3Jorge Soler48
4Cody Bellinger47
5Mike Trout45
6Christian Yelich44
7Nolan Arenado41
7Ronald Acuna Jr.41
7Alex Bregman41
7Nelson Cruz41

🤷‍♂️
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
The goal of an offense is to score runs not be aesthetically pleasing to purists. Are teams scoring more runs now or not (I actually didn't look it up)?

If you don't like the way the game is played now then don't watch. If enough people do this owners will have a choice to make. Go back to the 80's style baseball and hope everybody does it so you are not (possibly) at a competitive disadvantage because the one thing that keeps fans away more than "boring baseball" is "losing baseball"..

Also you guys make "mathematician" sound like a 4 letter word...
 

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