Estimated Probability of Competing in College Athletics

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marriard

Not lost - just no idea where I am
Oct 2, 2011
4,312
113
Florida

Lies, lies and statistics... Got to love it.

1) They left out NAIA and JUCO schools in determing the number of players who are 'competing in college athletics'

That shouldn't surprise you from the NCAA. If you take the # of NCAA teams as 942 or there abouts, this implies an average roster size of about 20. Now add in the NAIA/JUCO teams (205+470=675) you can add another 13,500 softball college athletes. Going from 19,000 to 32,500 college softball participants- that is a serious oversight in this NCAA research.
Also # of teams in college is going up (I am aware of 3 programs closing this season but over 15 starting) so there is more spots every year at the moment.

2) HS participants to College participants in softball is probably an irrelevant measure

Certainly based on the discussions that are had about HS softball across the country and because recruiting is almost exclusively through travel where there is a much, much higher % of serious players. It may a good measure for football as I believe most of the recruiting in that sport comes through HS. Not sure about some of the other sports. Travel participants in 18U to College would likely be a more reasonable measure but probably much harder to research. But even if you leave it like this, because you absolutely should include NAIA and JUCO in something like this you almost double the HS to College %


There are some other glaring issues, but these are the top two obvious ones.
 
Last edited:
Nov 25, 2012
1,437
83
USA
Lies, lies and statistics... Got to love it.

1) They left out NAIA and JUCO schools in determing the number of players who are 'competing in college athletics'

That shouldn't surprise you from the NCAA. If you take the # of NCAA teams as 942 or there abouts, this implies an average roster size of about 20. Now add in the NAIA/JUCO teams (205+470=675) you can add another 13,500 softball college athletes. Going from 19,000 to 32,500 college softball participants- that is a serious oversight in your research.
Also # of teams in college is going up (I am aware of 3 programs closing this season but over 15 starting) so there is more spots every year at the moment.

2) HS participants to College participants in softball is probably an irrelevant measure

Certainly based on the discussions that are had about HS softball across the country and because recruiting is almost exclusively through travel where there is a much, much higher % of serious players. It may a good measure for football as I believe most of the recruiting in that sport comes through HS. Not sure about some of the other sports. Travel participants in 18U to College would likely be a more reasonable measure but probably much harder to research. But even if you leave it like this, because you absolutely should include NAIA and JUCO in something like this you almost double the HS to College %


There are some other glaring issues, but these are the top two obvious ones.

Define YOUR RESEARCH please. I am assuming you mean NCAA......
 

marriard

Not lost - just no idea where I am
Oct 2, 2011
4,312
113
Florida
Define YOUR RESEARCH please. I am assuming you mean NCAA......

Yes, NCAA research if it can be called that.. certainly wasn't claiming you put the table together. Unless you secretly work for the NCAA....
 
Nov 25, 2012
1,437
83
USA
Yes, NCAA research if it can be called that.. certainly wasn't claiming you put the table together. Unless you secretly work for the NCAA....

I do not and thanks for the clarification. When you said "your research" it only points to me as a reply so took it that way. Quite positive the NCAA isn't listening to YOUR post. :p
 
Feb 17, 2014
7,152
113
Orlando, FL
This is nothing more than NCAA propaganda. It make the assumption that ALL High School players have a desire and make an attempt to play in the NCAA which we know is not the case. If you look at the pool of existing players that actually make an earnest attempt to play in NCAA, NAIA, or NJCAA you would find that the success rate is very high, I suspect somewhere north of 90%.
 
Jul 16, 2013
4,659
113
Pennsylvania
This is nothing more than NCAA propaganda. It make the assumption that ALL High School players have a desire and make an attempt to play in the NCAA which we know is not the case. If you look at the pool of existing players that actually make an earnest attempt to play in NCAA, NAIA, or NJCAA you would find that the success rate is very high, I suspect somewhere north of 90%.

The bold above is important. But there are other factors involved as well. Academics vs. Athletics. Willingness to travel. Etc. Several players on the 23u team I coach play for the same local D2 college. The college team carried 22 players on their roster for 2018, but 31 players showed up at tryouts in the fall. One girl I know personally that was cut chose this college because it is close to home and is well renowned for nursing (her career choice). She certainly could have pursued nursing at another institution and may have improved her chances of playing softball, but chose this college strictly for academic and financial reasons (she is commuting). She realized up front that her odds of playing were diminished due to her decisions. But I do agree that all else being equal, most athletes will be able to find a place to play if they are willing to expand their search enough.
 

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