Estimated Probability of Competing in College Athletics

FP26 said:

The bold above is important. But there are other factors involved as well. Academics vs. Athletics. Willingness to travel. Etc. Several players on the 23u team I coach play for the same local D2 college. The college team carried 22 players on their roster for 2018, but 31 players showed up at tryouts in the fall. One girl I know personally that was cut chose this college because it is close to home and is well renowned for nursing (her career choice). She certainly could have pursued nursing at another institution and may have improved her chances of playing softball, but chose this college strictly for academic and financial reasons (she is commuting). She realized up front that her odds of playing were diminished due to her decisions. But I do agree that all else being equal, most athletes will be able to find a place to play if they are willing to expand their search enough.

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This is true. I could put together a reasonably competitive D1 team with players who are attending the University of Florida who are not on the team and are not playing anymore but are there for other reasons. Some are there because they chose to go there over playing, some due to cost, some transferred there when they didn't like their first choice of college (or hated playing softball there), some are grads of a JUCO and decided 2 years college softball was enough, some just came 'home' and I am sure there are many other reasons.

I also suspect @risbeall could also name a very good team of current UF students no longer playing - and that it would probably be a completely different group of girls.

Something else to consider is the majority of the 5.1% of college softball players, and pretty much every non-revenue generating sport on the list, are playing "for the love of the game" because they are getting little to no athletic money. Playing a sport in college is a HUGE commitment and I tip my hat to all the athletes who do it for the love of the game!

marriard said:

This is true. I could put together a reasonably competitive D1 team with players who are attending the University of Florida who are not on the team and are not playing anymore but are there for other reasons. Some are there because they chose to go there over playing, some due to cost, some transferred there when they didn't like their first choice of college (or hated playing softball there), some are grads of a JUCO and decided 2 years college softball was enough, some just came 'home' and I am sure there are many other reasons.

I also suspect @risbeall could also name a very good team of current UF students no longer playing - and that it would probably be a completely different group of girls.

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Make sure you get that "pick-up" team in the SWAC so you have a shot at the NCAA tourney!

I know quite a few pretty dang good players who play "club" softball in college. Some of those club teams would beat a lot of college varsity teams.

Mixed reaction to these types of statistics...

It reasonably shows the massive reduction in overall playing opportunity when transitioning from HS to NCAA Divs 1-3. No, it doesn't show JUCO or NAIA, but it didn't intend to. It's an apples-to-apples comparison of HS to NCAA Div 1-3 participation across sports. It indirectly demonstrates how exceptional AND dedicated a player must be to participate beyond HS. Even if adding Marriard's JUCO and NAIA numbers for fastpitch, the playing opportunity doesn't top 9% compared to HS participation.

However,

When I see the world "probability", it suggests that everyone has an equal chance, like the roll of a dice or flip of a coin. As Marriard and others correctly point out, players aren't created equal in ability or desire. Most any competent player can probably find SOME college SOMEWHERE where they can play, or at least be on a roster.

That said, if you're going to play at the higher college levels, you need to be pretty darned good AND be very dedicated. From my vantage point, there are far more qualified players than spots. To play softball at schools most people have heard of and get any meaningful amount of athletic money, you need to be exceptional at that level. I know many people expending big money and effort chasing those spots and dollars. I've yet to personally see it pay off for anyone.

Seems to me that most of the 18U players in my area are capable at playing in college *somewhere*. Whether they choose to play at their level in college is up to them, I suppose. I know a few girls who think they deserve to play D1 who clearly don't. But I also know some players who could play D1 but choose a different path due to academics or proximity.

Strike2 said:

When I see the world "probability", it suggests that everyone has an equal chance, like the roll of a dice or flip of a coin. As Marriard and others correctly point out, players aren't created equal in ability or desire. Most any competent player can probably find SOME college SOMEWHERE where they can play, or at least be on a roster.

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Yes if they just said percentage of HS athletes playing college sports it would be mathematically correct.

pattar said:

Yes if they just said percentage of HS athletes playing college sports it would be mathematically correct.

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Great point and would add this would not include college bound TB players who opt not to play that softball in HS. The stud slapper who opts for track, or other player who just will not do HS ball would not be included.