Likelihood of getting recruited by Major D1?

marriard said:

I love people who think they have a commitment from a big team for their 8th grader. All that is the big colleges trying to stop a player they think might help them from looking around for the next few years - and then when a few do develop then we get the story about how they committed when they were 13 and ignore the 20+ other girls that were also 'committed' to the same school but didn't end up there. Parents coming through the process hear the 'success stories' but talk to the people who have been around the process for years and they have 100 warning stories for every one that worked out easily. Early verbals help colleges (and parents egos). That is really about it - a few exceptions of course, but not many.

Said this a few times. If there is something better out there and it becomes available, your 'committed in 8th grade junior' is going to be out of luck. But then you will not want to cause issues because you now have to go on the market again - you will say "School X wasn't for us, so we are looking at new options" and then when you find your next school that will then cascade through a bunch of other kids who thought they were headed wherever.

Or coach changes or AD changes or the kid quits softball or can't academically qualify and so on...

Until you have the NLI signed and you have officially been accepted and enrolled into the university, you really have nothing more than a kind of half-promise.

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The big thing to remember if you are 13 or 21 is colleges are always trying to find your replacement. Until you play your last game for a school they are always looking for someone a little better. They have been looking to replace their 2017 signing class for the last three years.

MNDad said:

I agree, but I don’t think its quite that extreme. I think most verbals, from HS age kids anyway, are entered into in good faith and they do end up signing. You’re right that nothing is guaranteed until the NLI though. Maybe a ¾ promise?

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If they are a Junior or a Senior I probably agree closer to 3/4 mainly because the NLI process is there and once signed, it is now a real contract and the leverage is now not just on the college's side....

But anything from grade 8 through Sophomore, I am going to say it a reasonable statement. I know coaches who absolutely know they have promised the same available scholarship to 5 or 6 girls in the hope that they keep one of them. It may even be in good faith in many cases, but too many things can happen that make it such a crap shoot. I have a good friend who has a Sophomore DD committed to a mid-upper D1 program. Loves the program, loves the coach, loves the college - they go to all the camps there, follow the team, etc... He believes his DD has a home there.... but the coach IS going to get fired if they have another season like the last two, and the current squad is questionable at best. New coach.... well, now both sides are basically re-thinking everything.

Look at JAD's DD. Great pitcher - unexpected coach change and in a matter of a few weeks is now going to a different program. Do we count that as a commitment that didn't actually happen? I sure do even if the college was willing to honor the previous coaches commitments - even this causes a cascade of players even considering she is going to be a new program. A different pitcher may have thought she was going there in a couple of years but now sees another pitcher there who is going to be REAL competition... well maybe she now decides somewhere else is better. Also JAD's DD's old commitment now has a spot open... so someone else's committed player probably ends up going there as they need a senior from HS or a transfer as they now need pitching NOW, and another school is now scrambling for pitching and so on...

And it doesn't have to be a bad situation - good coaches leave for better jobs all the time. Or leave for jobs outside softball.
Same with players? Does a player who commits but then stops playing softball for whatever reason (injuries, other interests, hates softball, etc) count as a commitment that didn't actually happen.
Or the girl who doesn't qualify academically?
Or the one that decommits because the scholarship is only 10% or so and the college is $35000/year?

I absolutely count those. It doesn't just have to be the college withdraws their offer. There are SO many reasons.