Softball Crisis in 2025?

[Strike2]

Overall college enrollment was declining even before Covid...a product of a declining birth rate. Over the next decade, you'll see lots of small schools with shaky balance sheets close down. I noticed a decline in participation in the younger age groups in my area years ago, which is counter-intuitive considering where I live.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/college-enrollment-birthrate-decline/2021/05/21/52d7e5a6-ba47-11eb-a5fe-bb49dc89a248_story.html

 

[wheresmycar]

Is active use of the transfer portal also affecting these numbers...more shuffling of athletes already within the system that dampens need for fresh recruits?

Absolutely. Programs are filling spots that would have normally been filled by incoming freshman, with 4th and 5th years transfers. It's the transfer portal AND the 5th year of Covid eligibility in combination that is really impacting the 22, 23 and likely 24 classes. P5 programs will always be able to draw from the portal, but smaller programs are going to struggle.

 

[Agcy]

I don't know if I would use one program's metrics as source for the concern. From what I've seen - programs wax and wane especially in the first 6-8 years.

I do know that local Tourn. Dir. have told me that they have more teams than ever coming to tournaments this year - at least in the 14U and younger events.

 

[wheresmycar]

Another example of this alarming trend...

ATHLETICS MERCADO​

2021 Commits 50
2022 Commits 20
2023 Commits so far.... 5

 

[GoGamecocks]

My daughter ended up going D3, but she was being recruited by a mid-major one state over. She had a conversation with the assistant that was recruiting her, and he told her that they could find a spot for her on the team, but with an extra year of eligibility for everyone because of Covid, she'd be one of 32 or 33 on the team.

And they only travel with 20.

He told her she probably wouldn't see an away field until at least her junior year, and the team would probably by 30+ players for the next 3-4 years.

I'm glad he was honest with her. I think hearing some version of this tale is pushing girls away from playing softball in college. They don't want to go work on the sidelines for two years and play for an enormous team were everyone is fighting for playing time. If you're good enough to be a journeyman player in 2010, in 2022 you're thinking of hanging up those cleats and just doing the "normal" college thing without softball. The truly elite players are still going to be there.

Also, there is an enormous gap between the best EC Bullets team and the worst.

 

[Rolling Hard]

Now, this is most likely anecdotal evidence, but in my area, we are experiencing a significant drop in numbers of players in softball. I attribute it to several factors, lacrosse drawing players away being a huge one.

In 2016, our LL had 7 teams with 13-14 players each in the softball majors division. By 2017, they were down to 4 teams, and by 2018, it was 3 teams in the majors. The last year my HS had both a JV and varsity team was 2018. Since that time, we have struggled to get 16 girls per year playing softball. We had somewhat of a baby boom between 1997-2004, and the numbers of students has dropped every year. In fact, my daughter's graduation had 185 students this year, but the 1st grade class has 130 kids.

Considering softball is becoming more popular across the country, this probably isn't the reason. It's a huge issue here in the northeast, though.

I would say teams expanding and others breaking off has watered down the talent from the formerly dominant organizations.

This is probably true.

 

[erniekru]

From my perspective, there's a ton to unpack on what is happening in softball.

1. covid and 5th years - most rosters are filled to the brim with athletes now. Schools pre-covid had smaller rosters (compared to now) but that has changed drastically. The unfortunate thing is I believe the college coaches have learned to like the ballooned rosters.. no extra money expenditures, just athletes willingly sharing smaller slices of the scholly pie.
2. Big rosters = lots of transfer portal athletes (some exceling at mid majors moving up, some from lack of playing time at big time schools trickling down). Any time a team moves up or is high in the RPI rankings, they'll have a list of athletes a mile long wanting to transfer in. Just look at schools like OSU.. For 2023, they've taken in 7 portal players as well getting their incoming 22's. Any team within scratching distance to the top (say 25-50) are getting the trickle down transfers.. More players willing to play
3. The recruiting window for HS players is pushing back even more. To me, gone are the days of Sept 1 meaning a lot. Sure, the premiere pitchers and some position players will get swept up Sept 1, but realistically going forward, I think Dec-Mar of Junior year is probably going to be early and it will be very common for HS players to sign fall Sr year.
4. Wins/Wins/Wins - honestly, if results are needed and you were a coach (that had the ability to draw from the portal) what would you choose a) a HS senior available for 4 years or b)a proven entity in a transfer portal Soph or Jr available for 2 or 3 years?

To me the biggest change is the transfer portal. Imagine if all transfer players were still required to skip a year of eligibility, I think it would be totally different.

 

[Orange Socks]

From my perspective, there's a ton to unpack on what is happening in softball.

1. covid and 5th years - most rosters are filled to the brim with athletes now. Schools pre-covid had smaller rosters (compared to now) but that has changed drastically. The unfortunate thing is I believe the college coaches have learned to like the ballooned rosters.. no extra money expenditures, just athletes willingly sharing smaller slices of the scholly pie.
2. Big rosters = lots of transfer portal athletes (some exceling at mid majors moving up, some from lack of playing time at big time schools trickling down). Any time a team moves up or is high in the RPI rankings, they'll have a list of athletes a mile long wanting to transfer in. Just look at schools like OSU.. For 2023, they've taken in 7 portal players as well getting their incoming 22's. Any team within scratching distance to the top (say 25-50) are getting the trickle down transfers.. More players willing to play
3. The recruiting window for HS players is pushing back even more. To me, gone are the days of Sept 1 meaning a lot. Sure, the premiere pitchers and some position players will get swept up Sept 1, but realistically going forward, I think Dec-Mar of Junior year is probably going to be early and it will be very common for HS players to sign fall Sr year.
4. Wins/Wins/Wins - honestly, if results are needed and you were a coach (that had the ability to draw from the portal) what would you choose a) a HS senior available for 4 years or b)a proven entity in a transfer portal Soph or Jr available for 2 or 3 years?

To me the biggest change is the transfer portal. Imagine if all transfer players were still required to skip a year of eligibility, I think it would be totally different.

I saw a kid going to her 3rd school in 3 years. TTech, UT, now Houston.

 

[joe720]

Until 2024 there is a whole extra class. I know a lot of people felt bad for the athletes losing a year of playing but I've always felt worse for the girls trying to find a spot with everyone getting an extra year.

 

[Rolling Hard]

From my perspective, there's a ton to unpack on what is happening in softball.

1. covid and 5th years - most rosters are filled to the brim with athletes now. Schools pre-covid had smaller rosters (compared to now) but that has changed drastically. The unfortunate thing is I believe the college coaches have learned to like the ballooned rosters.. no extra money expenditures, just athletes willingly sharing smaller slices of the scholly pie.
2. Big rosters = lots of transfer portal athletes (some exceling at mid majors moving up, some from lack of playing time at big time schools trickling down). Any time a team moves up or is high in the RPI rankings, they'll have a list of athletes a mile long wanting to transfer in. Just look at schools like OSU.. For 2023, they've taken in 7 portal players as well getting their incoming 22's. Any team within scratching distance to the top (say 25-50) are getting the trickle down transfers.. More players willing to play
3. The recruiting window for HS players is pushing back even more. To me, gone are the days of Sept 1 meaning a lot. Sure, the premiere pitchers and some position players will get swept up Sept 1, but realistically going forward, I think Dec-Mar of Junior year is probably going to be early and it will be very common for HS players to sign fall Sr year.
4. Wins/Wins/Wins - honestly, if results are needed and you were a coach (that had the ability to draw from the portal) what would you choose a) a HS senior available for 4 years or b)a proven entity in a transfer portal Soph or Jr available for 2 or 3 years?

To me the biggest change is the transfer portal. Imagine if all transfer players were still required to skip a year of eligibility, I think it would be totally different.

But doesn't players entering the portal (moving up, down or sideways) create openings elsewhere?