Should you ever contest a steal of 2nd w/ runner at 3rd?

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Mar 4, 2015
526
93
New England
I have play-by-play data from the WCWS since 1997, and I've found this statistic to be fascinating.

Only one player has been thrown out trying to steal second with a runner at third in the last 25 years at the WCWS. Those attempting to steal 2nd are successful 93 of 94 times with a runner at 3rd. That's compared to about 71% success rate when no runner at 3rd. I don’t know how often catchers have thrown down with runners 1st/3rd because WCWS scorers apparently never rule for defensive indifference. Everything is either SB or CS.

Further, on these 94 attempted steals, 9 runs have scored from 3rd because of the throw down, either because of catcher error or a double steal.

In fairness, there have been 2 cases of the defense getting the runner on 3rd out.

So in 96 cases, there have been 3 good outcomes for the defense:

GIORDANO out at home c to ss to 1b to c, caught stealing
Nickles advanced to second, out on the play; Maurice out at home c to ss to c to 3b to 2b, caught stealing
Wigness, B out at second c to ss, caught stealing

Is the best college defenses can't do better than this, what is good reason ever to make a legit shot at getting the runner at second? Maybe what we thought was smart in 10U rec ball applies at every level. Just hold the ball.

btw, looks like the play above w/ Nickles (aka Bubba) was a double play. Maybe somebody remembers that one. I don't, but it occurred in 2017, UCLA vs. Texas A&M. I assume that since the lead runner was out at home, the trailing runner (Nickles) didn't get credit for a SB herself, and then she was doubled up after reaching second safely. Must've been a heckuva play ... the old 2-6-2-5-4 DP.
 
Mar 8, 2016
313
63
Ok I will bite

Definitely
Up more than 1 run late in the game if travel ball or late innings of a non timed game
Probably
No outs and the middle of the order up against a good team.

DD played for a coach that would throw down under these circumstances and even some more. You would be surprised how often the runner from first just went half speed to second and was an easy out. 75% of the time, the runner on third just stayed on 3rd. She either was caught by suprise that there was a throw or was afraid there was a play on to get her at home.

Is there a chance for a bad throw? Absolutely.

In my opinion coaches fail to throw down even when getting the out is more valuable than the run. If they are doing that because they are afraid of their catchers making a bad throw, then the catcher needs work.un. If they are doing that because they are afraid of their catchers making a bad throw, then the catcher needs work.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 
Mar 4, 2015
526
93
New England
Ok I will bite

Definitely
Up more than 1 run late in the game if travel ball or late innings of a non timed game
Probably
No outs and the middle of the order up against a good team.

DD played for a coach that would throw down under these circumstances and even some more. You would be surprised how often the runner from first just went half speed to second and was an easy out. 75% of the time, the runner on third just stayed on 3rd. She either was caught by suprise that there was a throw or was afraid there was a play on to get her at home.

Is there a chance for a bad throw? Absolutely.

In my opinion coaches fail to throw down even when getting the out is more valuable than the run. If they are doing that because they are afraid of their catchers making a bad throw, then the catcher needs work.un. If they are doing that because they are afraid of their catchers making a bad throw, then the catcher needs work.

Good points. I don't have an easy way of knowing the score in these WCWS games when the 94 attempts took place. It might be that some of those runs allowed were not that important.

Playing in a high-scoring game also factors in. You don't see as many of those in the WCWS, but most travel balls games, a runner at third w/ 0 outs is probably going to score anyway, so take a shot at second if you've got one.
 
May 15, 2008
1,913
113
Cape Cod Mass.
A lot depends on the level of play and also the quality of the runners you have on base. I have found that in general runners on 3rd are reluctant to take a big lead on the throw because everyone has their little trick play where they throw to the SS or something similar. We have gotten the runner at 2nd and a lot of them without the runner on 3rd going home. On offense we have had some success with a fast runner at 3rd leaving on the throw and beating the cut throw to home.
 
Last edited:
May 17, 2012
2,804
113
The problem is if you don't throw to 2B at all, you limit your options down the road. Even if you attempt and fail other options are still viable/believable on later scenarios.

With no throw you have no options. If I am the opposing coach I am not respecting you at that point. I will keep my runner tight at 3B knowing you aren't going to 2B, and taking runners on 2B and 3B all day long. I am not buying your catcher pump fakes and fake throws to SS at that point.

I am keeping my 3B runner tight until you earn it.
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
Depends on the situation. There has been a discussion about this already on here..
 
Mar 4, 2015
526
93
New England
The problem is if you don't throw to 2B at all, you limit your options down the road. Even if you attempt and fail other options are still viable/believable on later scenarios.

I guess that's akin to a football team taking deep shots down the field, even if they rarely result in completions. Keeps defense honest.
 
Mar 4, 2015
526
93
New England
Depends on the situation. There has been a discussion about this already on here..

What's new are the stats. But, perhaps I should not have titled the thread as I did. I didn't mean to start a discussion simply on that issue, but on the stats themselves and what they reveal, if anything.

Some other stats from the WCWS since 1997; Runners on first will steal 8.5% of the time. When it's 1st & 3rd, that goes up to 20.2%. Of course, that's highly dependent on the base runner and other factors.

When I see the exceptionally high success rate - 93 of 94 - that would persuade me to be more aggressive as an offense, sending runners 1st/3rd more than the 20%, and to be more conservative on defense. Not eliminating throws, but being more careful.

Assuming my stats are correct, there's no question that the offense has gotten the better of these matchups at the WCWS.
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
What's new are the stats. But, perhaps I should not have titled the thread as I did. I didn't mean to start a discussion simply on that issue, but on the stats themselves and what they reveal, if anything.

Some other stats from the WCWS since 1997; Runners on first will steal 8.5% of the time. When it's 1st & 3rd, that goes up to 20.2%. Of course, that's highly dependent on the base runner and other factors.

When I see the exceptionally high success rate - 93 of 94 - that would persuade me to be more aggressive as an offense, sending runners 1st/3rd more than the 20%, and to be more conservative on defense. Not eliminating throws, but being more careful.

Assuming my stats are correct, there's no question that the offense has gotten the better of these matchups at the WCWS.
You are assuming college coaches are making good decisions..😉
 

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