Sacrifice Bunts and Math

[schwabach]

...you win by scoring more runs than the other team...

Can you provide a mathematical proof for this. On the surface, you would seem to be correct, but a proof would be helpful.

Oh, never mind. I guess this is an axiom.

 

[sluggers]

The odds are more in favor of bunting in softball than baseball for three reasons:

1) Re-entry rule. In softball, the slow players can be replaced by very fast players once without penalty. Hemphill hits a single? "Have a seat, Bailey. Speedy, you're in."

2) 60 feet base paths. In softball, runners at second can almost always score on singles to the outfield. Very fast runners can sometimes score from second on infield singles in softball. In baseball, usually the ball has to be hit between the outfielders for a runner on second to score.

3) Variable strike zones. There are greater variations between umpire strike zones in the NCAA when compared to MLB. In softball, when you have a good pitcher paired with a generous umpire behind the plate, the batting averages trend to zero.

 

[schwabach]

Plus NCAA softball stats and probabilities don't really map so cleanly to MLB stats. Aside from the obvious detail that baseball and softball are different games, MLB players and umpires tend to make fewer mistakes than even the best college players.

 

[_MIA_]

The odds are more in favor of bunting in softball than baseball for three reasons:

1) Re-entry rule. In softball, the slow players can be replaced by very fast players once without penalty. Hemphill hits a single? "Have a seat, Bailey. Speedy, you're in."

2) 60 feet base paths. In softball, runners can almost always score on singles to the outfield. In fact, runners can sometimes score on infield singles in softball. In baseball, usually the ball has to be hit into the gap for the runner to score.

3) Variable strike zones. There are great variations between umpire strike zones in the NCAA when compared to MLB. When you have a good pitcher paired with a generous umpire behind the plate, the batting averages trend to zero.

Yet the run expectancy stats are similar (qualitatively at least) from what I remember. I think somebody (@Westwind ?) found them somewhere.

 

[radness]

The odds are more in favor of bunting in softball than baseball for three reasons:

1) Re-entry rule. In softball, the slow players can be replaced by very fast players once without penalty. Hemphill hits a single? "Have a seat, Bailey. Speedy, you're in."

2) 60 feet base paths. In softball, runners can almost always score on singles to the outfield. In fact, runners can sometimes score on infield singles in softball. In baseball, usually the ball has to be hit into the gap for the runner to score.

3) Variable strike zones. There are great variations between umpire strike zones in the NCAA when compared to MLB. When you have a good pitcher paired with a generous umpire behind the plate, the batting averages trend to zero.

Ahhh look at #3 !!!

Have noted this for decades!
Nice to read another take notice too!

 

[Westwind]

Stand by for those run expectancy numbers, I’m sure I have them somewhere.

This thread is from 2015 so a lot has changed…

 

[_MIA_]

This thread is from 2015 so a lot has changed…

You gave the run expectancy chart within the last year I think..

 

[Westwind]

 

[Westwind]

 

[_MIA_]

You have the one which gives the probability of scoring 1 run?

Edit: ask and you shall receive