OK, because I was bored I went through the conferences and looked to see who is likely in and out...
Note: First run through, first thoughts.... probably some outright mistakes below
-------------------------
There are 32 autobids - one from each D1 conference.
Power conferences:
SEC gets minimum 10 - Mississipi State and Ole Miss should be a little worried and a win in the SEC 1st round would help. Missouri to be talked about later.
PAC12 gets 5 with Cal probably 6 and Oregon State worried.
Big Ten 4 - Michigan & Minnesota... Then 2 of Ohio State, Northwestern & Illinois depending on BigTen tourney. Indiana is currently below .500 so unless they win, they wont make it.
ACC 2 FSU & Pitt in, North Carolina probably, BC/Notre Dame worried and probably need to make ACC final to be sure
Big 12 Gets 3 - OK, OK State and Baylor. Texas has to be concerned.
So that is 20 at large bids taken care of, another 3 probably and lots of worried teams that with a tournament win will more to probably. lets call it 25 total with a couple of wins for some teams in conference tournaments - leaving only 7 spots for real at large-teams.
For non-power conferences:
For 19 conferences the automatic bid will be their only bid no matter what happens.
That leaves 8 conferences where there are teams where there are teams that should get at-large bids even if they don't get an autobid and upsets will cause a real problem:
- American Athletic - should get two. USF, Houston, Witchita State & UCF all have similar very good records.
- A10 - strong chances of two - Umass should be in either way, Fordham is strong bubble, Daytona probably have to get the autobid
- Atlantic Sun - chance of 2 - USC Upstate IN, Kennesaw State bubble - but there is several teams in conference that could win the auto-bid
- Big Sky - chance of 2 - Montana & Weber State probably both deserve a spot (but will probably only get one)
- Big South - chance of 2 - Liberty and Longwood deserve to be in. Radford need the auto-bid
- Big West - should get 2 - Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State IN
- Colonial - string chance of 2 - James Madison & Hofstra should be IN - Towson need an autobid
- Southern - UNCG IN , Mercer on the bubble
If teams like UNCG, USC Upstate, Umass lose or team like Towson, Raford or Daytona win there is going to be a squeeze.
Now Missouri... first the whole Wichita State thing was low enough, but lying and pretending they were worried about 'the weather' instead of just saying they were gaming the system has left a bad taste in some peoples mouth. Not making the SEC tournament is going to be highlighted by it being played at their fields without them. Just being in the SEC (which automatically gives you a high RPI) shouldn't be a guarantee of making the field. Sure they probably are better (especially on paper) than a lot of the teams who could get at-large bids and their non-conference schedule is a mix of some good and bad wins and losses and some cupcakes. A team like Hofstra or JMU shouldn't miss out because they lose their conference tournament over a team that won only 1 rain shortened SEC series this season.
Unless there are NO upsets of mid-conference 'IN' teams and the committee just rolls over for the SEC (again), I don't believe they should get in. You would assume teams like Miss State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame & Oregon State who are in their tournaments are in before Missouri is.
Oregon State have similar issues with their record but at least have a chance with 3 games at Utah coming up starting Thursday and a chancre to get to 10 conference wins.
In my mind, the discussion should be more on whether teams like Miss State and Ole Miss get in. I am big on getting more other conference teams into the tournament. I believe it is good for the game in general and while it is impossible to say how some of these teams would do in the SEC or PAC12, the reality is that they are not in these conferences and dominating their conference - tournament win or not - should be rewarded.
------------------------------------------
Lets go the other way and just go heavy Power Conference at large bids:
- All the SEC teams get in so 12 at large
- PAC 12 gets 6
- Big 10 gets 3
- Big 12 gets 3
- ACC gets 4
That likely leaves only 4 non-power At-Large bids. That is probably not enough and a strong team with 38-40 wins will likely miss out (I am guessing one of James Madison, Hofstra, Cal State Fullerton or Long Beach State).
I guess we will find out if this is the year the mid-conferences get a little more attention.
Note: First run through, first thoughts.... probably some outright mistakes below
-------------------------
There are 32 autobids - one from each D1 conference.
Power conferences:
SEC gets minimum 10 - Mississipi State and Ole Miss should be a little worried and a win in the SEC 1st round would help. Missouri to be talked about later.
PAC12 gets 5 with Cal probably 6 and Oregon State worried.
Big Ten 4 - Michigan & Minnesota... Then 2 of Ohio State, Northwestern & Illinois depending on BigTen tourney. Indiana is currently below .500 so unless they win, they wont make it.
ACC 2 FSU & Pitt in, North Carolina probably, BC/Notre Dame worried and probably need to make ACC final to be sure
Big 12 Gets 3 - OK, OK State and Baylor. Texas has to be concerned.
So that is 20 at large bids taken care of, another 3 probably and lots of worried teams that with a tournament win will more to probably. lets call it 25 total with a couple of wins for some teams in conference tournaments - leaving only 7 spots for real at large-teams.
For non-power conferences:
For 19 conferences the automatic bid will be their only bid no matter what happens.
That leaves 8 conferences where there are teams where there are teams that should get at-large bids even if they don't get an autobid and upsets will cause a real problem:
- American Athletic - should get two. USF, Houston, Witchita State & UCF all have similar very good records.
- A10 - strong chances of two - Umass should be in either way, Fordham is strong bubble, Daytona probably have to get the autobid
- Atlantic Sun - chance of 2 - USC Upstate IN, Kennesaw State bubble - but there is several teams in conference that could win the auto-bid
- Big Sky - chance of 2 - Montana & Weber State probably both deserve a spot (but will probably only get one)
- Big South - chance of 2 - Liberty and Longwood deserve to be in. Radford need the auto-bid
- Big West - should get 2 - Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State IN
- Colonial - string chance of 2 - James Madison & Hofstra should be IN - Towson need an autobid
- Southern - UNCG IN , Mercer on the bubble
If teams like UNCG, USC Upstate, Umass lose or team like Towson, Raford or Daytona win there is going to be a squeeze.
Now Missouri... first the whole Wichita State thing was low enough, but lying and pretending they were worried about 'the weather' instead of just saying they were gaming the system has left a bad taste in some peoples mouth. Not making the SEC tournament is going to be highlighted by it being played at their fields without them. Just being in the SEC (which automatically gives you a high RPI) shouldn't be a guarantee of making the field. Sure they probably are better (especially on paper) than a lot of the teams who could get at-large bids and their non-conference schedule is a mix of some good and bad wins and losses and some cupcakes. A team like Hofstra or JMU shouldn't miss out because they lose their conference tournament over a team that won only 1 rain shortened SEC series this season.
Unless there are NO upsets of mid-conference 'IN' teams and the committee just rolls over for the SEC (again), I don't believe they should get in. You would assume teams like Miss State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame & Oregon State who are in their tournaments are in before Missouri is.
Oregon State have similar issues with their record but at least have a chance with 3 games at Utah coming up starting Thursday and a chancre to get to 10 conference wins.
In my mind, the discussion should be more on whether teams like Miss State and Ole Miss get in. I am big on getting more other conference teams into the tournament. I believe it is good for the game in general and while it is impossible to say how some of these teams would do in the SEC or PAC12, the reality is that they are not in these conferences and dominating their conference - tournament win or not - should be rewarded.
------------------------------------------
Lets go the other way and just go heavy Power Conference at large bids:
- All the SEC teams get in so 12 at large
- PAC 12 gets 6
- Big 10 gets 3
- Big 12 gets 3
- ACC gets 4
That likely leaves only 4 non-power At-Large bids. That is probably not enough and a strong team with 38-40 wins will likely miss out (I am guessing one of James Madison, Hofstra, Cal State Fullerton or Long Beach State).
I guess we will find out if this is the year the mid-conferences get a little more attention.
Last edited:
