Value of bunting with second hitter
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My first response would be that at 14U A ball and above it shouldn't be an either/or from a player perspective -- a great bunter and great hitter shouldn't be two different things. The best option in my mind is a player who can put maximum pressure and disruption on a defense, a multi-faceted slapper is great or a solid hitter who can also handle the bat and execute offensive plays.
The better strategy question -- and what I think you're asking -- is what is the value of a sac bunt that is a guaranteed out in that situation. I've been questioning that as well this fall. Depends somewhat on the feel of the game, I think. Will it be a pitcher's duel won by a single timely base hit? Also, can your base-runner and two-hitter execute other plays beyond a bunt to reach your goal -- a straight steal, a hit and run, etc. -- that doesn't give up the automatic out.
Those are more questions than answers. I'd be interested as well in this conversation. TKS.
The better strategy question -- and what I think you're asking -- is what is the value of a sac bunt that is a guaranteed out in that situation. I've been questioning that as well this fall. Depends somewhat on the feel of the game, I think. Will it be a pitcher's duel won by a single timely base hit? Also, can your base-runner and two-hitter execute other plays beyond a bunt to reach your goal -- a straight steal, a hit and run, etc. -- that doesn't give up the automatic out.
Those are more questions than answers. I'd be interested as well in this conversation. TKS.
- May 17, 2012
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The two spot should be your best hitter period.
You didn't specify so I am I inferring that your lead off batter gets on and you want the two batter to SAC bunt. It's bad math and bad softball. Every time an opposing team does this against us I want to send the coach a thank you card.
Never bat a runner to second with no outs. When I say never I mean 99% of the time. I am sure thier is some weird exception where I would do this.
You didn't specify so I am I inferring that your lead off batter gets on and you want the two batter to SAC bunt. It's bad math and bad softball. Every time an opposing team does this against us I want to send the coach a thank you card.
Never bat a runner to second with no outs. When I say never I mean 99% of the time. I am sure thier is some weird exception where I would do this.
What about the possibility of 2 outs, nobody on? There is a higher chance of that happening if you put a weak hitter/great bunter at #2 instead of a better overall hitter.
2014 NCAA D1 Run Exp
In NCAA D1, you would expect to score 2.287 runs in an inning that starts 1st & 3rd, no outs vs. 0.857 runs in an inning that starts runner on 2nd, 1 out. These are averages from 2014 and not directly applicable to 14U, but used as a guide you'll have to consider how much better is your "hitter" vs your "bunter." The RE difference is pretty darn big!
The question becomes: is the juice worth the squeeze? IMO, if one of your best hitters is up with a runner on 1st (and there's a strong argument for your 2-hole hitter to be your best hitter), don't take the bat out of her hands. I agree with RichK that it shouldn't be an either/or thing, but I go with letting my hitter hit. I wouldn't put an "out" in the 2-hole, for sure.
Note that if you get to 1st & 2nd, no outs, the RE is only slightly less than 1st & 3rd.
The only time I am sacrifice bunting with my leadoff hitter on 1B with no outs is if I need one run to win a game. Otherwise, my #2 hitter is trying to drive her in from 1B or get her around to 3B with one swing.
If I have the personnel, I often will have my #2 hitter as a slapper if she is very good at it, super-fast and extremely hard to get out. With the (presumably fast) leadoff hitter on, a speedy slapper can put tons of pressure on the defense. If she drops a drag bunt, they can't even think about checking the runner going to 2B or else the slapper is safe is at 1B and we're in business with two on and no outs! If they shift the defense to take away the short slap, I am betting that my leadoff hitter can steal 2B then that drag bunt puts her on 3B!
To me, outs are more valuable than gold bars. So, I would not put a "good bunter" in my #2 hole. I am either going to have my very best hitter there or highly-skilled, ultra-speedy slapper if I am lucky enough to have one on the roster. That's it.
If I have the personnel, I often will have my #2 hitter as a slapper if she is very good at it, super-fast and extremely hard to get out. With the (presumably fast) leadoff hitter on, a speedy slapper can put tons of pressure on the defense. If she drops a drag bunt, they can't even think about checking the runner going to 2B or else the slapper is safe is at 1B and we're in business with two on and no outs! If they shift the defense to take away the short slap, I am betting that my leadoff hitter can steal 2B then that drag bunt puts her on 3B!
To me, outs are more valuable than gold bars. So, I would not put a "good bunter" in my #2 hole. I am either going to have my very best hitter there or highly-skilled, ultra-speedy slapper if I am lucky enough to have one on the roster. That's it.
Based on that, it makes little sense to sacrifice in travel ball, unless you have a good bunter who is overmatched by a particular pitcher. That doesn't mean you shouldn't bunt a runner to 2nd. But you the pure sac bunt (vs. bunting for a hit) is not that valuable.
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As you say, very much depends on the batter and lineup spot. Really, the sac bunt only makes sense with 0 outs. The drop in RE from 0 to 1 out is significantly smaller than going from 1 to 2 outs.
- May 17, 2012
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Also you should really be looking at the relationship between runner on first and no outs vs. a runner on second with one out. Using first and third with no outs is optimistic in that you aren't factoring in the difficulty of bunting for a hit (low probability at the 14u A level).
I would think if you wanted to include 1rst and 3rd you would have to factor that probability as well in as well (can't recall the last first to third bunt I saw at the A level unless p/c/3rd forgot to cover).
Really what you want to do is take the chart above and determine the success rate at whch you would to execute to be "better off" from a run expectancy situation. As I recall from the math you would have to steal third base with two outs at a 90% rate in order to be better off with regards to run expectancy. Not many base runners can do that.
I would think if you wanted to include 1rst and 3rd you would have to factor that probability as well in as well (can't recall the last first to third bunt I saw at the A level unless p/c/3rd forgot to cover).
Really what you want to do is take the chart above and determine the success rate at whch you would to execute to be "better off" from a run expectancy situation. As I recall from the math you would have to steal third base with two outs at a 90% rate in order to be better off with regards to run expectancy. Not many base runners can do that.
- May 17, 2012
- 2,806
- 113
Hard to disagree with the maths but I would say that the threat of bunting is important in travel ball. The question is what situation exists where you do the latest amount of damage to run expectancy. If you are going to bunt certain situations are better than others.
