Does a high percentate of swings and misses mean poor hitting?

I was wondering if I could spot any kind of relation between what rate a batter swings and misses and some other typical hitting metrics, and came up with the attached. The only thing I really saw right off the bat was that the batters who swung and missed at the highest rate were the ones who had the best OPS and Runs Created numbers. Hmmmm.

View attachment relateppo.pdf

The first guy to prove that you can swing and miss a lot and be a good hitter was Babe Ruth. That discovery, coupled with the livelier ball, changed the game.

I wouldn't think that the guys who swing and miss the most are always your best hitters, though. I'd guess that is a bit of a fluke. I'd like to see the numbers on BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. But I do think that being a good hitter requires a go-for-it kinda swing that might mean more misses and more long hits.

I can't find quickly find MLB stats on the subject, but one that I did find showed that the Phillies' Ben Rivera had the lowest rate of swings/misses. He led the NL in hits (186) and batting .306 in a pitcher's year, yet his OPS+ is 93, meaning he's a below-average hitter in terms of production. His walk and extra-base hit totals are very low. But I also notice that Buster Posey rarely swings and misses, and I'd be happy to have him batting #3 for any team.

I Don't have any stats, but was it Babe Ruth that said "Ever swing and miss puts me closer to the next home run."

CoogansBluff said:

The first guy to prove that you can swing and miss a lot and be a good hitter was Babe Ruth. That discovery, coupled with the livelier ball, changed the game.

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Actually, I don’t know that he swung and missed a lot. I also don’t know that a high K rate indicates a high degree of swings and misses. It seem logical, but without real numbers, its just conjecture.

I wouldn't think that the guys who swing and miss the most are always your best hitters, though. I'd guess that is a bit of a fluke. I'd like to see the numbers on BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. But I do think that being a good hitter requires a go-for-it kinda swing that might mean more misses and more long hits.

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I don’t think there’s anything “always” true in baseball.

I don’t play with ML numbers. All I have are my own. 

I can't find quickly find MLB stats on the subject, but one that I did find showed that the Phillies' Ben Rivera had the lowest rate of swings/misses. He led the NL in hits (186) and batting .306 in a pitcher's year, yet his OPS+ is 93, meaning he's a below-average hitter in terms of production. His walk and extra-base hit totals are very low. But I also notice that Buster Posey rarely swings and misses, and I'd be happy to have him batting #3 for any team.

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I don’t think there’s much doubt that every hitter’s style is gonna have a huge bearing on how his numbers look. However, I can say that the numbers I have for HS show a tendency for the batters willing to swing early in the counts to be the better hitters.

PEPPERS said:

I Don't have any stats, but was it Babe Ruth that said "Ever swing and miss puts me closer to the next home run."

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That’s the logic behind coaches trying to get batter to swing the bat for over 100 years. If you don’t swing, there’s very little hope of getting a base hit.

Scorekeeper said:

Actually, I don’t know that he swung and missed a lot. I also don’t know that a high K rate indicates a high degree of swings and misses. It seem logical, but without real numbers, its just conjecture.

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I appreciate your devotion to the scientific method, but you really feel that it's possible that Babe Ruth led the league in strikeouts without swinging and missing more than the average guy?

Looks like the Babe walked more than he struck out. Career numbers were pretty darn great: about .340 BA, .470 OBP, .690 SLG, and 1.100 OPS.

Babe Ruth Batting Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

Here is my case for my conjecture that those who swing and miss the most are also likely to strike out the most ...

Unfortunately, I was only able to find a list of those that swing and miss the LEAST in the National League in 2014.

These 10 players were the least likely to swing and miss, ranked 1-10. In parentheses is their ranking in the NL in strikeouts per at-bat. Clearly a very strong correlation in the swings/misses and SO/AB.

1. Ben Revere (1)
2. Denard Span (2)
3. Martin Prado (12)
4. Matt Carpenter (37)
5. Jonathan Lucroy (5)
6. Daniel Murphy (13)
7. Dee Gordon (31)
8. Chase Utley (14)
9. Andrelton Simmons (6)
10. Ender Inciarte (7)

Additionally, I printed out a spreadsheet of the 101 players in the NL with at least 400 at-bats and ranked them 1-101 in their strikeouts per at-bat.

Top 20 in lowest SO/AB - .737 OPS
Top 20 in highest SO/AB - .764 OPS
Average NL hitter w/ 400+ AB - .750 OPS

Those more prone to striking out have better OPS numbers than those less prone to striking out.

But there are many exceptions. Bad hitters with high SO/AB ratios include BJ Upton and Jay Bruce. Good hitters with very low SO/AB ratios include Buster Posey and Justin Morneau.

Of course, none of that means that striking out is a good thing. The guys who strike out the most per at-bat probably aren't going to get to 400 at-bats because they suck. Dan Uggla became that kind of hitter.

But I do think that swinging and missing and striking out more is sometimes the price you must pay to become a more productive hitter, the kind of hitter who has a lot of extra-base hits. You have to swing hard. Sometimes it takes a lot of casualties to win a battle.

CoogansBluff said:

I appreciate your devotion to the scientific method, but you really feel that it's possible that Babe Ruth led the league in strikeouts without swinging and missing more than the average guy?

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Swinging and missing more than the average guy, prolly so because he batter more than the average guy. Swinging and missing at a higher rate, maybe or maybe not.