Thread: More evidence that the sacrifice bunt is a waste

Watch any fastpitch softball game -- travel ball, high school, even college -- and there's a pretty good chance you'll see this scenario play out

First batter up gets on base -- gets a hit, walks, reaches on error, hit by pitch, whatever. So what happens next? The coach in the third base box throws some signals, and the hitter promptly tries to sacrifice her over to second. The thought, of course, is that by moving the runner up 60 feet the team will have a better chance of scoring a run. And one run could be the difference between winning and losing.

The trouble is there are a few flaws in that thinking. One is that it's not 1987 anymore. Between more players taking hitting lessons, the pitching rubber being moved back to 43 feet in most levels of play, and bat technology that can turn a checked swing into a double, the 1-0 or 2-1 game is pretty much a rarity.

But even if it were, as I've written before here and here, the facts don't bear out the strategy. Instead of looking hopefully at the idea of moving a runner into scoring position, we need to look at actual outcomes -- in other words check the facts instead of the assumptions.

I haven't been able to find any stats specific to fastpitch softball, but I did a great chart that looks out the outcomes in Major League Baseball going all the way back to 1950. Take all the emotion out of it and just look at what happens in different situations.

Let's take a look at our scenario again. Looking at the stats for 1993-2010, with a runner on first and no one out, MLB teams scored .941 runs from that point to the end of the inning. If you sacrifice the runner to second, which means you have a runner on second with one out, MLB teams scored .721 runs. In other words, by moving that runner up a base by giving up an out, you're likely to to score .220 fewer runs.

Now take a look at the second chart, which shows the chances that any runs will score in an inning in different situations. With our runner on first and no outs, there's a .441 chance a run will score. By moving that runner to second with a sacrifice bunt, you now have a .418 chance of scoring a run in the inning. Again, by making that move your chances of scoring have decreased by .033.

That's not speculation. That's science. The numbers don't lie.

If you're one of those who automatically goes to the sac bunt when you get a runner on base, maybe it's time to re-think that strategy. Unless you're playing my team. In that case, by all means please feel free to give up an out every time you get a runner on first. I'll be sure to say thank you later.


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Were you able to find any statistics on bunting a runner on 2nd over to 3rd with no outs (tiebreaker strategy)? I'm just curious.

I am not a big fan of the sac bunt, but depending on the batter and next few hitters in the lineup it can be an effective tool. I would be interested in the percentage of sac bunts that are misplayed. I remember watching a ball go into centerfield on a sac bunt that help cost the yankees game 7 in the 2001 world series.

Originally Posted by alexander58

Were you able to find any statistics on bunting a runner on 2nd over to 3rd with no outs (tiebreaker strategy)? I'm just curious.

Looks like you can use the same chart, and if I'm reading it correctly, that particular play does increase your chance of scoring ( second chart)
Runner on 2B, 0 outs=.637
Runner on 3B, 1 out = .674

But the average # of runs ( first chart) does go down from 1.170 to .963 after the bunt. So it seems it's only the right play in the tiebreaker scenario you mention, (or maybe if trying to get that one run across to tie the game)

I agree with you in principal. Always believed that the sac bunt was overused and overrated.

But without reading all the linked articles, I'm going to suggest that those statistics simply say that the sac bunt is OVER-used, not that it should NEVER be used. If you've got a runner on first and a .100 hitter at the plate who puts down the bunt successfully 80 percent of the time, and the top of your order is really, really good, and we're playing a really good team (not likely to get passed balls, wild pitches, stolen bases, bases on balls), then that's probably a better reasonable play, certainly a better play than trying to bunt w/ a .250 hitter who puts it down 70 percent of the time.

All that said, I have never called for a sac bunt in 4 years of coaching 10U and 12U travel because we don't play at a level where the opposition won't still give you enough walks, wild pitches, errors, etc., to make giving up an out on purpose to be foolish.

Originally Posted by Greenmonsters

Understand your reasoning and don't necessarily disagree, but if what you say is true, then your players have no experience getting down a sac bunt under pressure and there's going to come a time when that may be a problem. IME, I've seen a lot of older kids who only know how to try to bunt for a base hit and really struggle putting a true sac bunt down in a must have situation (i.e., ITB).

I think that's fair criticism. My teams never bunted well.

Ken, I agree with your assessment that you don't see the 2-1 or 1-0 ball games as much anymore for the reasons you have stated. However, I have still seen quite a few 6-5 or 8-7 ball games. Still a one run difference and that one run could be the "manufactured" run in the first or second inning involving the sacrifice bunt.

I'm not a coach, just an umpire, but I still believe that the sac bunt is a skill that FP players need to execute when necessary.

I currently have 2 very fast girls in the 1-2 slots, one of whom
hits for average and power. She bats 2nd, I will only sac bunt her
if the defense allows. One bobble puts my runner on 3B
I feel I have flexibility as defenses respect her power and
sometimes play the corners deep. In this scenario, I will sac bunt her.....(sometimes)
I have also batted her 1st when she is 'hot' with her speed/power combo
many times she ends up w/ leadoff double. Then, a sac bunt gives me a runner at 3
and 1 out.

I do not automatically sac bunt, and I am fortunate to have great speed on top.
Other years, lacking speed, the sac. bunt is an afterthought, rarely used. When
devoid of speed, I focus on the #2 as a slapper-many times the powerslap goes for
extra bases..... just a thought