This chart also suggests that if a team has runners 1st/3rd, and 0 outs, and then puts the runner at 1st in jeopardy as a way of getting the run home, then the smart play by the defense is to take the out at second and let the runner score (unless it's the winning run). Run expectancy goes from about 2.3 to 1.3 if you take the out. Especially in travel ball, where runs are a little more frequent than in NCAA. If somebody gives you the 1st out of an inning to move a runner, even to score a runner, you should take it in most cases.
Value of bunting with second hitter
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This chart also suggests that if a team has runners 1st/3rd, and 0 outs, and then puts the runner at 1st in jeopardy as a way of getting the run home, then the smart play by the defense is to take the out at second and let the runner score (unless it's the winning run). Run expectancy goes from about 2.3 to 1.3 if you take the out. Especially in travel ball, where runs are a little more frequent than in NCAA. If somebody gives you the 1st out of an inning to move a runner, even to score a runner, you should take it in most cases.
Yes. Because even if you don't get the out, the RE only goes from 2.287 to 2.493, a minimal increase vs the opportunity to reduce the RE by a full run. Basically concede the runner at 3rd in exchange for an out.
I appreciate the stats. I agree that sac bunting is often a bad play. Although I think that you have to use a different set of stats to determine the chances of getting 1 run if you need it. I.E. tie game in bottom of seventh. You aren't looking for total run expectancy just the expectation that you'll get 1 in.
RE is based strictly on base/out state. The inning doesn't matter, that was determined by Sabermetricians working on MLB data and it's the same for fastpitch. What you're looking for is the probability of scoring a single run in a given base/out state:
Again, inning doesn't matter. This data is from 2011-2013 MLB, but it gives you an idea for guidelines you might be able to use.
coachjwb
Love this game!
While data like this is interesting and may be directionally correct for certain things, just keep in mind that MLB is a very much different game than youth fastpitch softball.
As for the original question, while good bunting skills are ideal in a #2 hitter, I'm not going to put someone that high in the order unless they're a very good hitter and ideally fast on the base paths as well. The top of the order will often get up to bat 50% more (i.e., 3 times vs. 2) than the bottom in a typical travel game with time limits. Plus, it is not all that likely that they are going to get up in a good bunting situation (runner on 1st or 2nd and no outs) after the first time at bat. You should think about the top of your order like this ... if it's the last inning of the game and 2 outs, and we need a hit to win or tie the game, who do you most want up to bat in that spot? It's almost never going to be a great bunter who is a less than average overall hitter.
As for the original question, while good bunting skills are ideal in a #2 hitter, I'm not going to put someone that high in the order unless they're a very good hitter and ideally fast on the base paths as well. The top of the order will often get up to bat 50% more (i.e., 3 times vs. 2) than the bottom in a typical travel game with time limits. Plus, it is not all that likely that they are going to get up in a good bunting situation (runner on 1st or 2nd and no outs) after the first time at bat. You should think about the top of your order like this ... if it's the last inning of the game and 2 outs, and we need a hit to win or tie the game, who do you most want up to bat in that spot? It's almost never going to be a great bunter who is a less than average overall hitter.
Yeah, if the best thing you can say about your #2 hitter is that she's very good at making outs (albeit intentional outs), that's not a great recommendation, IMO.
14U A-ball and above EVERY batter should be able to lay down a sacrifice bunt, and a sacrifice bunt is a MUST HAVE skill set when playing an ITB.
Coaches have different philosophies, but if someone asked me which player on the team is typically the best hitter, I would say the #3 batter. #1 and #2 are usually high on base percentages with good speed. In the #3 spot you do not worry about speed, but want a contact hitter who has the best chance to drive in runs.
On average it's your #2 hitter who comes up most often with runners on and fewer than 2 outs, so batting your highest wOBA here would be a good idea. But that's a straight numbers game, and coaching based on "gut" feeling or simple tradition can be just as effective. Heck, even if you used a straight Saber lineup in MLB, it's only worth about 2 wins over 162 games.
Regardless, even if you have a high OBP hitter at #2 you wouldn't sac bunt her, would you?
Agree completely. My dd is B level, and her last team worked a lot on bunting skills. New team not near enough IMO.
