I don't make my players take on 3-0 unless we are down late in the game and need a runner. I let them swing away if they get their pitch.
Swinging on 3-0
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I don't make my players take on 3-0 unless we are down late in the game and need a runner. I let them swing away if they get their pitch.
Interesting. It looks like the batting average (.361) isn't much higher than leaving the bat on your shoulder (33% walk). How many of those 3-0 hits were for extra bases? On the other side, 64% of players who swung at that 3-0 pitch were put out. By contrast, the worst thing that can happen for not swinging 3-0 is to wind up 3-1.
I can see when swinging at a 3-0 might be necessary, such as when the game is on the line, runners on, and the right hitter is at the plate, but the idea that "we don't want walks" is a way for most teams to lose potential baserunners. I've seen it happen; kids are given the "green light" on 3-0, and then repeatedly make poor decisions. The object of the game is to outscore your opponent, and you have to get on base to do that.
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In 2009, BA dropped .040 going from 3-0 to 3-1. And you're ignoring the base/out state. Runners on and a 90%+ chance of seeing a grooved fastball? I don't think there can be a hard and fast rule. My girls have the green light.
In 2014, the chances of reaching base after the count hits 3-0 was 74 percent (link below).
Once it reaches 3-1, those chances dropped to 57 percent.
Of course, that doesn't mean you should swing at every strike on 3-0 in order to avoid 3-1. But, a hitter also cannot afford to let a pitcher automatically reduce that hitter's chances by 17 percent. There must be some risk involved for the pitcher.
Major League 2014 Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com
In 2014, there were only 300 cases of a player putting the ball in play on a 3-0 count.
Results (these are Babe Ruth-like):
2B - 24
3B - 2
HR - 25
League average per 300 at-bats
2B - 15
3B - 1.5
HR - 7.5
Once it reaches 3-1, those chances dropped to 57 percent.
Of course, that doesn't mean you should swing at every strike on 3-0 in order to avoid 3-1. But, a hitter also cannot afford to let a pitcher automatically reduce that hitter's chances by 17 percent. There must be some risk involved for the pitcher.
Major League 2014 Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com
In 2014, there were only 300 cases of a player putting the ball in play on a 3-0 count.
Results (these are Babe Ruth-like):
2B - 24
3B - 2
HR - 25
League average per 300 at-bats
2B - 15
3B - 1.5
HR - 7.5
Here is the Slugging Percentage on Contact for 600 D1 softball games last year by count:
Heat map by count
While 3-1 turns out to be the best hitter's count, I would argue that a .543 slugging percentage with a 3-0 count is pretty darn good (remember, these are balls in which hitters made contact - it does not account for taking pitches or a swing/miss/foul).
Heat map by count
While 3-1 turns out to be the best hitter's count, I would argue that a .543 slugging percentage with a 3-0 count is pretty darn good (remember, these are balls in which hitters made contact - it does not account for taking pitches or a swing/miss/foul).
SLG is around twice AVG, so the average number of bases was roughly 2.
Coaches shouldn't employ a one-size-fits-all strategy for all players - they should use what's appropriate based on the ability and plate discipline of each player. Coaches should also use game situations as teaching moments when circumstances allow.
You're right about the "one size fits all" strategy, but wrong about how you're interpreting slugging %. Slugging % is the number of bases per AB, and the possible range is 0-4. It has no direct relationship to batting average, and it is easily possible for two batters with the same BA to have different slugging percentages, and for a batter with a lower batting average, who hits lots of HRs, to have a higher slugging percentage than a higher percentage hitter who only hits singles.
A slugging percentage of less than "1" means that the series of at-bats averaged less than a single.
- Jun 7, 2013
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In general, I have the non-power hitters take on a 3-0 count. Where hitters get a green light from me if they are apt to drive the ball for more than a single.
A definitive yes or no regarding swinging on a 3-0 pitch is a pretty simplistic approach to the game. I would hope that most coaches would consider some of the additional dozen or so factors and then make an informed decision. Otherwise the coach is the one that ends up looking like a jackass.
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